Posted by
crosspatch on Monday, July 21, 2008 12:27:42 AM
All the media hype notwithstanding, this year's arctic ice isn't going to disappear. In fact, there is today more ice in the arctic than this day last year. In fact, there is almost 1 million square kilometers more. In fact, there is more ice today than there was on this date in 2006 and in 2005. There is more melting to be done but we are, this week, in the period of greatest melt and 2007 is losing ground to 2007.
The loss of ice over the past couple of years appears to have been more to do with changes in wind patterns than with changes in temperature. Arctic air temperatures have not been unusually warm and ocean temperatures globally have cooled somewhat in the past few years. It appears that the winds pushed more of the ice than usual past Greenland into warmer waters where it melted away. This year's wind patterns are apparently more benign in that regard.
This past winter showed the fastest and most extensive sea ice recovery every documented. Media outlets have been reporting that since this year's ice was new ice, it would be easier to melt. That is because first-year ice has a higher salt water content and melts at a lower temperature. Multi-year "old" ice is also more compressed and denser causing it to melt more slowly at a given temperature. It seems this year's ice is thicker than previously thought and this summer has not been as sunny in the arctic resulting in lower melt rates than predicted.
The major media can be expected to pick up on this story and widely report this year's great arctic ice recovery ... well ... probably when we see Satan on skis.