Posted by
crosspatch on Wednesday, December 20, 2006 7:56:30 PM
It appears that a new political reality is taking shape in Iraq that could be a way forward out of the current violent struggle between factional militias. Over the past few weeks, an alliance of more moderate political groups spanning the entire nation of Iraq to include Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds has taken shape. This group has apparently offered to put its backing behind Iraqi President Maliki so that he may address the problem of the radical militias without losing support in the Iraqi assembly.
The current Iraqi government was beset with two realities that prevented it from taking action against these radical militias. First there was a problem with political alliances. Shiites could only maintain their majority as a voting block in the assembly if they remained together. A combined Kurdish/Sunni alliance could dominate if there was any fracture of the Shiite block. Also, all sides wanted a government that was not a threat to them. As such the government was designed to be weak so as to pose no threat. Should the government move against any militant faction, that faction could pull out of their political alliance and Maliki's support in the assembly could be toppled.
What has now appeared is an alliance that transcends religious or ethnic factions. Apparently the desire to stop the violence is now a higher priority than ethnic or religious concerns. Rather than call for the ouster of Maliki, which would throw the government into turmoil for weeks or possibly even months, they have thrown their backing behind him and are encouraging him to take action with promises of their support provided some of their own conditions are met.
What is most interesting is that top Shiite cleric in Iraq, Grand Ayatollah Ali al Sistani is apparently supportive of this direction. His blessing would pave the way for wide Shiite acceptance of this plan and the development of a pan-Iraqi alliance to fight the militias. In particular, it makes moot any threats people such as Moktada al Sadr might make to derail this opportunity. In fact, this entire alliance seems designed to thwart just the kind of action that al Sadr has threatened with his walkout of the assembly some three weeks ago.
In the meantime, President Bush has met with other political leaders of this alliance who have recently traveled to Washington to present their views on this plan. The message is simple and clear. The Iraqis have grown tired of the violence being waged by Iraqis on Iraqis and have finally found the will to form the political backing needed for a solution. al Sadr is now on notice as his position is considerably weaker if he chooses to remain on the wrong side of this alliance.
In fact, some inkling of how important al Sadr sees these events is reflected in reporting by the AP today where the notion of a one month unilateral ceasefire by his Mahdi Army is being floated. al Sadr is set to meet soon with delegates from this alliance followed shortly thereafter by a meeting with Ayatollah Sistani. The New York Times reports in an article dated December 20, 2006 that the door for Shiite participation in this alliance is to be initially open very wide to allow maximum initial participation. As time passes, this door is expected to begin closing. The alliance appears to have enough votes already to moot any antics by al Sadr so his room for any serious derailing manoeuvres is limited. In other words, the specter of irrelevance is before him and if he wishes to remain a political force within the government, he needs to bring his militia under control.
This is the first post-election (Iraqi election, that is) good news I have seen and bold steps such as these are what is needed to bring peace to Iraq. The Iraqis seem to have realized what we had been trying to tell them all along. They have had the power to put an end to this internal violence, they simply needed the will to do so. When if finally became obvious that the situation was not going to sort itself out and that hundreds of Iraqis were dying every month in the sectarian strife, the Iraqis have appeared, so far, to show a desire to rise above sectarian and religious differences, band together, and face the toublemakers. And they are facing their troublemakers with an olive branch in one hand and a sword in the other. It is up to them to choose which they want.
I wouldn't say it is a new dawn in Iraq just yet, but it does appear that I can see the first brightening of the early twilight on the horizon.