Posted by
crosspatch on Monday, July 17, 2006 3:10:35 AM
This posting is actually a rather long comment I left at BlueCrabBoulevard. I thought I would make it it's own posting on my blog. The premise was that there was a miscalculation in the Hezbollah attack on Israel. While I agree there might be a miscalculation, the severity of the Israeli response probably isn't it. Here is my original (slightly expanded) comment on
this thread:
If I were sitting in Lebanon and I had just witnessed Israels
reaction to the taking of the soldier in Gaza, I would be fairly
certain I would get a similar reaction for performing a similar deed. I
see this as something wider. Notice the coordination. Three tapes from
Bin Laden? When was the last time we saw that? Attack on Israel from
Gaza, attack in India, attack from Lebanon. Al Qaida’s trademark is
multiples. They never do one of anything. While I am not saying this is the work of Al Qaida itself, there sure seems to be a role of coordinator being played here.
I believe you have fanatics that have made the same mistake the
fanatics have always made. They believe that if they take these
spectacular actions, it will rally the masses to follow them into the
fires of hell. I think they honestly believe that these actions will
result in some more general rising up resulting in widespread mayhem.
Problem is that the masses so far don’t seem to be buying it. They
didn’t buy it after 9/11 or when Al Qaida appeared in Iraq either.
Sure, there were a few thousand who trotted off to their deaths but
that is nothing compared to the estimated billion Muslims on this
planet. The vast majority just aren’t buying it at all.
I believe we are witnessing a desperate attempt to create that
rallying point by attacking the one target the masses can’t refuse to
go along with, Israel. It is a desperate attempt to revive their
movement. But one major problem is that their best leaders are dead and
most of those who would be likely to rise up and join their bloody
campaign of hirabah have already been killed, captured or imprisoned.
The areas surrounding Israel and the Horn of Africa are probably the
last remaining places with any reserves of potential “martyrs”.
If you listen to the rhetoric coming out of Lebanon, Syria, and
Iran, the talk is of a war by the Islamic Nation. They are attempting
to portray this as being on the scope of a war by all Muslims and in so
doing, implying that it is somehow the duty of all Muslims to come to
the aid of Hezbollah and Hamas. Besides the masses not buying into the
whole notion that hirabah is somehow a noble cause, there is another
problem.
Israel has been quite effective in blocking any way for a wouldbe
terrorist to get to the area of fighting. Air routes are closed, sea
routes are closed, fuel is scarce and what roads are open are flooding
with refugees and foreigners trying to get out. There is practically no
way for any significant number of volunteers to get to the area of the
fighting even if they have the means. It looks like Israel is following
the Powell doctrine of “First we are going to cut it off, and then we
are going to kill it” that was so effective in the first Gulf War.
I believe there is been a miscalculation but the Israeli response
isn’t it. What they miscalculated was the level of support this would
have and what the global response to this coordinated series of
spectacular actions would be. This could well be a clear sign of the
beginning of the end for these terrorists. If this turns out to be a
spectacular failure, look for Iran to crumble from within and for Osama
to fade away. If this push becomes an embarrassment, the concept of
Islamic Revolution is probably dead.